摘要
为了解决现有地区电网安全风险评估在处理模糊性和随机性方面存在的不足,提高地区电网安全风险评估的科学性,本文借鉴已有电网安全风险评估的研究成果,基于模糊层次分析法建立了一套从结构风险、运行风险、技术风险和极端环境风险4个方面对地区电网进行安全风险评估的指标体系,并计算出各风险因素的综合权重;考虑到地区电网安全风险影响因子的复杂性和模糊性,引入云模型对其中定性的风险因素进行量化表达,并通过云模型定量评价各指标下电网安全风险等级.通过对某地区电网进行安全风险评估,结果表明:该地区电网安全风险评价等级属于较高风险,与实际的电网运行安全风险评估结果相吻合,证明该方法的有效性与可行性.
To overcome the deficiency of the current regional power grid security risk assessment methods in dealing with fuzziness and randomness,and improve the scientificity of regional grid security risk assessment,this paper set up an indicator assess the security risk of regional power grid in terms of structural risk,operation risk,technology risk and extreme environmental risk and calculated the comprehensive weights of each index,referring to the existing research achievements in the field of power grid security risk assessment and based on the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. Considering the complexity and ambiguity of impact factor of regional power grid security risk,the cloud model was brought to quantify the qualitative risk factors and estimate the power grid security risk level quantitatively under the various indicators. The security risk assessment of one region power grid shows that the region power grid belongs to the higher risk grade,and the result matches the real risk assessment of the power grid,which proves the validity and feasibility of the assessment method.
作者
刘晓欣
刘志坚
吴桂鸿
LIU Xiaoxin;LIU Zhijian;WU Guihong(Nujiang Power Supply Bureau,Yunnan Power Grid Co Ltd,Nujiang 673199,China;Faculty of Electric Power Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;Yunnan Electric Power Test ＆ Research Institute Group Co Ltd,Kunming 650217,China)
出处
《昆明理工大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第4期71-77,共7页
Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51007034)
云南电网科技项目(YNKJXM00000325)
