摘要
福寿螺(Pomacea spp.)严重破坏了农业生产和生态系统,并且对人类健康形成致命的威胁.其中小管福寿螺(Pomacea canaliculata)是世界100种恶性外来入侵物种之一.通过收集福寿螺分布数据绘制分布动态图,重建福寿螺在我国的扩散动态,明晰福寿螺的扩散方向和扩散速度.扩散过程表明福寿螺在中国南方的分布区将会继续扩大范围,有进一步向北扩散的趋势,扩散速度持续增长,未来可能在南方形成全面入侵格局.使用气候和海拔数据变量构建最大熵模型,预测福寿螺的潜在分布区和影响福寿螺分布的关键环境变量,结果显示:浙江、福建、江西、广东、广西、海南和台湾等省已成为福寿螺的高分布区,其危害十分严重;上海、湖北、湖南、四川、西藏、贵州、重庆和云南为中分布区,但也具有较高的潜在暴发风险.环境变量分析显示:年均温度是影响福寿螺分布的最重要环境变量.受试者工作曲线(ROC)检测了模型预测结果的准确度,AUC平均值为0.97,说明预测结果准确,可信度高.这些结果可为进一步开展福寿螺在我国的扩散趋势预测、建立风险评估体系以及制定有效的防治措施提供依据.
Pomacea spp. have caused negative impact on agricultural production,ecological environment and potential human health pests. Pomacea canaliculata is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world. Distribution data of Pomacea spp.was collected for reconstruction of the spread history of Pomacea spp. in China. The expansion process showed that the distribution of Pomacea spp. in southern China would continue to expand,and a comprehensive invasion pattern may be formed in the future with a tendency to further spread to the North. Combined with the climate and altitude data,Maxent model was constructed to predict the potential distribution of Pomacea spp. and analyzed the key environmental factors affecting its distribution. The results showed that Zhejiang,Fujian,Jiangxi,Guangdong,Guangxi,Hainan and Taiwan had become a high distribution areas with serious damages,and Shanghai,Hubei,Hunan,Sichuan,Xizang,Guizhou and Yunnan were in medium distribution,but with a high risk for outbreaks. Analysis of environmental variables showed that the influence of annual mean temperature was the most critical.The receiver operator characteristic curve（ ROC） was used to test the predicted results,with the average AUC value of 0.97 which indicated a high prediction accuracy and credible results. These results could provide the basis for further developing the prediction of dispersal tendency of Pomacea spp. in China,establishing the risk assessment system and formulating effective prevention policy.
作者
周宇
袁雪颖
杨子轩
刘雄军
欧阳珊
吴小平
ZHOU Yu;YUAN Xueying;YANG Zixuan;LIU Xiongjun;OUYANG Shah;WU Xiaoping(： School of Life Sciences,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,P.R.China;： Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resource Utilization,Ministry of Education,Nanchang University,Nan chang 330031,P.R.China)
出处
《湖泊科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期1379-1387,共9页
Journal of Lake Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC1202002)资助
