摘要
为了处理传统事故树分析中基本事件的不确定问题,本文选取某石化企业中20×10^(4 )t·a^(-1)聚乙烯装置"火灾、爆炸"事故树作为研究对象,引入模糊理论的概念,将这些没有统计资料的基本事件故障概率用模糊概率来表征.运用一种能解决模糊性并且意义明确的三角模糊数来描述基本事件的模糊概率,逐层求得顶事件发生的模糊概率分布,同时,通过模糊数中值法,求出基本事件模糊重要度,并得到顶事件故障影响因素排序及影响事故的主要因素,得出模糊事故树更具有实际意义.
In order to solve the uncertain problems of the basis events in the traditional fault tree analysis method,the ＂fire and explosion accident＂ fault tree of a 20×10^4 t a^-1 polyethylene device in a petrochemical enterprise is selected as the object of study. The concept of fuzzy theory is introduced in this paper and the fault probability of the basic events which have no statistical information can be expressed by fuzzy proba fuzzy number which can so The fuzzy probability of the basic events can be expressed by the tri ve the ambiguity and express meaning clear. The fuzzy probability distribution can be confirmed layer by layer. At the and the rank of the top event failure factors can same time, the fuzzy importance of each basic event be confirmed by the median method of the fuzzy numbers, and the main factors which influence the accident can be found out. And therefore the fuzzy fault tree is more practical.
作者
屈晓雪
肖斌涛
司广顺
QU Xiaoxue;XIAO Bintao;SI Guangshun(China Petroleum Guangzhou Training Center,Guangzhou 510510,China;PetroChina Dushanzi Petrochemical Company,Karamay 833600,China)
出处
《西安工业大学学报》
CAS
2018年第4期401-407,共7页
Journal of Xi’an Technological University
关键词
三角模糊数
聚乙烯装置
事故树
模糊概率
模糊重要度
triangular fuzzy number
polyethylene device
fault tree
fuzzy probabilityfuzzy importance
