摘要
较大空间区域内的降雨型滑坡风险分析受降雨情况以及地质地貌条件复杂多样的影响,难以完全量化分析。本文以地层岩性、岩土体结构、地质构造、坡度及河流冲刷等为主要因素建立了边坡危险性区划模型,在重庆地区滑坡与降雨关系的统计分析基础上,建立了重庆地区滑坡前期累计有效降雨量模型与降雨型滑坡预报累积降雨量指标体系,结合对重庆地区降雨概率分布的分析,建立了降雨型滑坡风险分析模型,研究了不同降雨条件、不同边坡危性等级下的年度滑坡风险,验证了所建预报预警模型的合理性和适用性,为城市区域规划和基础设施风险评估与管理提供了定量依据,为一定空间和时间范围内降雨滑坡风险的量化评估提供了有效途径。
The risk analysis of rainfall-induced landslides in large areas is affected by rainfall and geological conditions and is difficulty to analyze numerically. In this paper,the slope risk division model is present by considering the factors such as stratum lithology,rock and soil structure,geological formation,slope inclination and river erosion phenomena. Based on the statistics of the relationship between rainfall and landslide based on the rainfall induced landslide cases in Chongqing,the model of effective cumulative rainfall before landslide is proposed. By the combination of the fore-mentioned models and the probability analysis of rainfall,the meteorological forecast model as well as the risk analysis model for rainfall-induced landslide are established. The rationality of the model is verified by case study while the annul landslide risk in Chongqing under different rainfall conditions and different slope danger grades is studied. It is shown that for the same risk zoning area,the greater the rainfall intensity,the greater the risk of landslide with the high forecast level.
作者
李环禹
陈朝晖
范文亮
文海家
LI Huanyu;CHEN Zhaohui;FAN Wenliang;WEN Haijia(School of Civil Engineering,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,China;Key Lab.of New Technol.for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area（Chongqing University）,Ministry of Education,Chongqing 400045,China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第4期103-111,共9页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51678092)~~
关键词
降雨型滑坡
重庆地区
边坡危险性区划
累积降雨量
滑坡气象预报预警模型
风险分析
rainfall-induced landslide
Chongqing
slope risk zoning
accumulated rainfall
meteorological forecastmodel for landslide
risk analysis
