摘要
基于1956-2013年德令哈气象站逐月降水资料,借助标准化降水指数(SPI)表征干旱,运用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Mann-Kendall突变检测、滑动t突变检验、Morlet小波变换、R/S分析等方法,分析近60年来其降水及干旱特征。结果表明:20世纪80年代之前处于降水偏少期,20世纪80年代至今处于降水偏多期,且呈现出上升趋势,冬季降水变化相对平稳,秋季降水波动较大;近60年来,年及各季节降水量呈显著上升趋势,年降水量上升率为21.16 mm/(10a),夏季降水量上升趋势明显,上升率为12.35 mm/(10a);年及各季降水量存在显著的3~9年的短周期和18~28 a的长周期变化;降水距平和SPI显著相关,干旱呈减弱趋势,干旱变化的周期为5 a和18 a。巴音河流域降水量的变化具有持续性,未来降水将保持增多趋势,干旱呈减弱趋势。
Based on monthly precipitation data from Delingha weather station during the period of 1956-2013,the drought was characterized by means of standardized precipitation index（ SPI）,and this paper analyzed the different temporal scale variation characteristic of precipitation and drought by using the methods of linear trend,Mann-Kendall trend test and abrupt change check,sliding t-test,Morlet wavelet transformation,R/S analysis and standardized precipitation index. The results indicated as follows： Rainfall was below normal level before 1980 s,and was above normal level after 1980 s,showing an upward trend.The winter precipitation variation was relatively stable. Precipitation in autumn experienced a great fluctuation. Annual and seasonal precipitation showed a significantly increasing trend in recent 60 years. The increasing rate of annual precipitation was 21. 16 mm/（ 10 a）,the trend of summer precipitation was the most obvious,and its increasing rate was 12. 35 mm/（ 10 a）. There were not only the 3-9 a short-term periodic changes of annual and seasonal precipitation,but also the 18-28 a longterm periodic changes. Correlation analysis shows that SPI and Rainfall anomaly were significantly correlated and there was a downward trend in drought severity,two periodic oscillation of droughts were found,including 5 a period and 18 a period. There was a continuance for precipitation in Delingha weather station of Bayin River basin,in the future,it willmaintain an increasing trend,and however,the drought severity will keep a downward trend.
作者
文广超
王文科
段磊
李一鸣
赵家辉
赵振
WEN Guangchao1,2, WANG Wenke1, DUANG Lei1 , LI Yiming1 , ZHAO Jiahui1 , ZHAO Zhen3(1. Key Laboratory of Subsuface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region of Ministry of Education, Chang＇an University, Xi＇an 710054, China; 2. School of Resources ＆ Environment, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China; 3 Environmental Geological Exploration Bureau of Qinghai Province, Xining 810007, Chin)
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
CSCD
2018年第1期18-24,共7页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(41230314)
旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室中心开放基金项目(2014G1502022)
柴达木盆地循环经济试验区重点地区(德令哈)地下水勘查项目(1212011220975)
柴达木盆地巴音河-塔塔河流域1:5万水文地质调查项目(121201011000150019)
