摘要
已有研究表明,政治冲突影响经济行为。本文以2012年9月中日钓鱼岛争端引发的"抵制日货"为例,使用我国2009—2014年汽车销售月度数据,识别政治冲突对型号层面汽车销售的影响并估计其规模。分析表明,日本品牌汽车的销售确实受到抵制影响,并在前4个月最为显著。稳健性检验表明,日本品牌汽车销量的下跌并非来自销售的季节性波动、地区差异和企业差异等因素。本文关于短期抵制效应的证据显示,事件中的观望效应显著。
Studies have shown that political conflicts influence economic behavior. This paper focuses on the Chinese boycott of Japanese products triggered by the conflict about Diaoyu Islands in September of 2012. With this event, we use the data of monthly sales of cars from 2009 to 2014 to identify the impact of political conflict and estimate its scale. The analysis shows that there is boycott effect in the sales of Japanese brand cars and we see a most significant effect in the first 4 months. Robustness check shows that the decline in Japanese brand car sales dose not come from the seasonal fluctuations, regional or business factors. The evidence of short-term boycott effect implies that there exists a wait-and-see effect in the event.
出处
《经济学报》
2017年第3期108-126,共19页
China Journal of Economics
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(暨南远航计划12JNYH002
暨南跨越计划12JNKY001
暨南启明星计划15JNQM001)资助
