摘要
目的探析GM(1,1)灰色模型预测杭州市艾滋病与梅毒报告人数的适用性。方法对杭州市2006-2015年艾滋病与梅毒报告人数时间序列进行描述性分析,运用GM(1,1)建模方法分别对艾滋病和梅毒的报告人数进行模型拟合,并对未来五年报告人数进行预测。结果 2006-2015年,杭州市艾滋病(r=1,P<0.05)和梅毒(r=0.6,P<0.05)报告人数均呈上升趋势,年平均增长速度分别达到30.65%和4.76%。对艾滋病和梅毒报告人数建立的GM(1,1)模型分别为^X(1)(k+1)=1 181.8e0.2023k-1 069.8和^a(1)(k+1)=313.9e0.0267k-307.2。未来五年,杭州市艾滋病与梅毒年平均增长速度将分别为22.42%和2.71%。结论 2006-2015年,杭州市艾滋病与梅毒报告人数均成上升趋势。GM(1,1)灰色模型为拟合和预测杭州市艾滋病与梅毒报告人数的理想模型。
Objective To explore the feasibility of GM（1,1）mode1 in the prediction of epidemiological trend of HIV/AIDS and syphilis in Hangzhou. Methods A descriptive analysis was conducted on time series of surveillance data of HIV/AIDS and syphilis collected from 2006 to 2015 in Hangzhou,and the GM（1,1）mode1 was established and the model fitting was performed and was used to predict the epidemiological trend of HIV/AIDS and syphilis for the next five years. Results From 2006 to 2015,the number of reported cases with HIV/AIDS（r=1,P〈0.05）and syphilis（r=0.6,P〈0.05）showed up-ward trends with the annual increase of 30.65% and 4.76%,respectively.The GM（1,1）mode1 was for HIV/AIDS and for syphilis.The average increase of HIV/AIDS and syphilis was predicted to be 22.42% and 2.71% in the next five years based on the models. Conclusions The numbers of reported cases with HIV/AIDS and syphilis increase gradually from 2006 to 2015 in Hanhzhou.GM（1,1）gray model is considered to be a optimal model for HIV/AIDS and syphilis prediction with accurate model fitting.
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
2017年第12期881-884,共4页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金
浙江省医药卫生科技计划项目(2015KYA189)
杭州市社会发展自主申报项目(20160533B51)
关键词
艾滋病
人类免疫缺陷病毒
梅毒
时间序列模型
GM(1
1)灰色模型
流行趋势
预测
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
Human immunodeficiency virus
Syphilis
Time seriesmodel
GM （1, 1） grey model
Epidemiological trend
Prediction
