摘要
基于误差修正模型(ECM),通过对2015年1月到2016年7月间中国的消费、投资和外贸对韩国出口贸易的影响进行实证分析,研究表明,当中国的消费和内资固定资产投资分别同比增长1个百分点,中国对北美、拉美、大洋洲、东盟和香港特区的出口依存度分别提高1个百分点,以及中国对日本的进口依存度提高1个百分点时,韩国对中国的出口依存度分别提高0.082、0.075、0.354、0.596、2.006、0.611、0.270和-0.270个百分点。由此可见,韩国对中国的出口与中国对相关地区的进出口的互补(或竞争)关系和其密切程度的差异,有利于中国通过"一带一路"框架下的自由贸易区建设和贸易多元化战略,提高韩国对中国的出口依存度和中国对韩国的经济影响力。
Through the analysis of the influence of China＇s consumption, investment and foreign trade on South Korea＇s export trade from January 2015 to July 2016 based on the ECM, when China＇s consumption and domestic fixed investment grew by 1% point, China＇s export dependency on the Market of North America, Latin America, Oceania, Asian and Hong Kong increase by 1% respectively and China＇s import dependency on Japan＇s increases by 1% as well. The export dependency of South Korea on Chinese market would increase by 0.082, 0.082, 0.082, 0.596, 2.006, 0.611, 0.2697 and 0.270 percent respectively. Therefore, the competitive relationship between South Korea＇s exports to China and China＇s import and export of related regions and the extent of their differences can increase dependence of South Korea on China＇s exports pass through ＂The Belt and Road ＂under the framework of the free trade area construction and trade diversification strategy and China＇s economic influence over South Korea significantly.
作者
苏明华
Su Minghua(Party School of Wuzhou Municipal Committee of CPC, Wuzhou, Guangxi, 54300)
出处
《东北亚经济研究》
2017年第4期32-43,共12页
Northeast Asia Economic Research
关键词
中国
韩国
依存度
ECM
外贸
China
South Korea
dependency
ECM
foreign trade
