摘要
基于EKC理论,利用上海市1985-2015年数据,研究能源消费碳排放与经济发展的关系,并分析不同发展阶段影响碳排放走向的因素。得到如下结论:(1)上海市尚未达到碳排放生态拐点,未能形成EKC曲线,2008年之后碳减排处于瓶颈期;(2)抑制碳排放增长的主要因素是第二产业GDP占比的下降,但由于第二产业与第三产业能源强度的差距逐渐缩小,产业结构调整的抑制作用正在削弱;(3)推动碳排放增加的主要因素包括第三产业中高耗能行业的规模扩张、不尽合理的出口贸易结构和快速推进的人口城镇化等。但近年来城市集约发展的优势初步显现,城镇化对碳排放增长的刺激作用在减弱,并有望成为碳减排的推动因素。未来应以低碳城镇化为契机,合理调整产业结构和贸易结构,逐步实现经济增长与碳排放绝对脱钩。
Based on the EKC theory, the paper studies the relationship between carbon emission of energy comsumption and economic development, and analyzes the infuence factors of carbon emission by using the data of carbon emission and economic development of Shanghai between 1985 and 2015. The results are as follows： （1） Shanghai has not yet reached the peak point of carbon emission, and failed to follow a EKC curve. The city has been undergoing a bottleneck period for carbon reduction after 2008; （2） the main factors inhibiting the carbon emissions increase is the decline of the second industry in GDP. But, the effect is weakening, because energy intensity in the second industry had declined sharply in the early stage which has been getting closer to the tertiary industry; （3） the main factors promoting carbon emission increase include three aspects： the scale of some high energy consuming industries in the tertiary industries has been expanding; the structure of export is not very reasonable; and urbanization has been advanced rapidly. However, the advantage of urban intensive development has appeared initially in recent years, and the effect of urbanization on increase of carbon emission is weakening. And urbanization is expected to be a driving factor in carbon emission reduction. In the future, Shanghai should take the opportunity of low-carbon urbanization, adjust the industrial structure and optimize the structure of export trade. These measures will contribute to realize the absolute decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions.
出处
《上海经济》
CSSCI
2018年第1期68-77,共10页
Shanghai Economy
关键词
上海
碳排放
经济发展
环境库兹涅茨曲线
Shanghai
carbon emission
economic development
Environmental Kuznets Curve
