摘要
本文基于2003—2015年中国对"一带一路"沿线43个国家的OFDI面板数据,通过Heckman两阶段模型和扩展的投资引力模型,检验了中国OFDI在"一带一路"沿线国家的区位分布特征。除了考虑东道国市场规模、资源和政治制度等传统因素之外,重点考察了东道国经济制度对中国OFDI的影响,对倡议前后的效应变化做了对比检验。实证结果发现:东道国经济制度同时影响了投资选择偏好和投资规模;中国OFDI偏向于货币自由度和投资自由度较好的国家和地区,商业自由度在长期影响着投资行为;近3年来东道国商业自由度的提升促进了中国企业的投资行为,而贸易自由度的变化在一定程度上抑制了中国OFDI。最后给出中国企业在"一带一路"倡议下"有所为"和"有所不为"的相关投资建议。
This article is based on the Chinese OFDI panel data in the 43 countries along the ＂Belt and Road＂ from 2003 to 2015, and examines the location choice characteristics of the Chinese OFDI, through Heckman two-phase model and expanded investment gravity model. In addition to the consideration of the host country＇s market scale, resources and the traditional factors, we mainly focus on the impact of host country＇s economic institution on Chinese OFDI, and compares the effect of test before and after the ＂Belt and Road＂ initiative. The empirical results show that： the economic institutions of the host country simultaneously influences the choice preference and the scale of Chinese OFDI. Chinese OFDI is biased toward countries and regions with better monetary free- dom and investment freedom, and the degree of business freedom has affected the invest behavior for a long time. In the past three years, the promotion of business freedom in the host country has promoted the investment behavior of Chinese enterprises, while the trade freedom has inhibited Chinese OFDI to some extent. Finally, we give the investment advices to Chinese enterprises on ＂what to do＂ or ＂what not to do＂ under the ＂Belt and Road＂ initiative.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期92-100,共9页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"世界经济的重大结构性矛盾及其深刻影响研究"(17ZDA096)
教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目"与环境污染相关的我国居民健康不平等研究"(15YJCZH139)
关键词
对外直接投资
经济制度
自由度
Heckman模型
Outward Foreign Direct Investment （OFDI）
Economic Institutions
Freedom
Heckman Model
