摘要
研究目的:目前,国家在公共基础设施建设领域大力推行PPP模式,而市场需求是PPP项目的关键风险因素之一。本文通过整理归纳相关研究文献,分析了我国PPP项目市场需求风险的产生原因、影响、理论依据和风险分担偏好,结合项目实例,提出了风险分担建议。研究结论:(1)市场需求风险产生受竞争风险、社会经济发展、预测缺陷不足和政府决策变化等诸多方面影响,不仅直接影响项目实际收益,而且间接影响投资者对项目和政府的信心;(2)基于市场需求风险分担需坚持最适宜原则(由谁分担、何时分担以及如何分担),项目在事前、事中和事后三阶段的需求风险分担侧重点不同;(3)不同的PPP项目面临的现实问题不同,市场需求风险分担比例及实现路径需根据具体情况进一步研究细化和科学决策;(4)本研究成果对提高PPP项目风险管理效率具有理论指导和借鉴意义。
Research purposes： At present, the government vigorously promotes the PPP model in the field of public infrastructure, and market demand is one of the most important risk factors of PPP projects. Through sorting out the relevant literatures and domestic and international PPP project, this paper analyzes the causes, effects, theoretical basis and risk sharing preferences of demand risks, and also puts forward a risk sharing proposal. Research conclusions： （ 1 ） The impact development, deficiencies forecast and c of market demand risks arising from competition risks, socio - economic hanges in government decision- making, not only directly affect the actual income of the project, but also indirectly affect the investor＇s confidence in project and government. （2） The market demand risk sharing should adhere to most appropriate principle （by whom to share, when to share and how to share）, the emphasis of demand risk sharing in preparation stage, construction stage, and operation stage is different. （3） According to the different situations of PPP projects, the market demand risk sharing proportion and realization path should be carried out in detail and scientific decision -making. （4） The research achievements have theoretical and practical significance for improving PPP projects risk management efficiency.
出处
《铁道工程学报》
EI
北大核心
2017年第11期95-98,共4页
Journal of Railway Engineering Society
关键词
PPP模式
市场需求
风险管理
分担机制
public -private partnership model
market demand
risk management
sharing mechanism
