摘要
突水突泥是困扰隧道安全的重要难题之一,对隧道开挖过程中的突水突泥进行研究具有重要意义。基于考克斯比例风险模型,选取围岩等级、地下水状况、隧道埋深、层间裂隙距离、开挖时间和是否发生突水突泥6个指标来量化不同区域的突水突泥风险。实测获取一系列指标后,用偏似然估计通过Newton-Raphson迭代获得各影响因子的回归系数,并采用Mathematica编程绘制了不同指标变化对应的突水突泥风险比例。结合柿子园隧道,对不同断面进行了突水突泥进行评估,为隧道开挖的突水突泥提供有效预警。
Water and mud inrush is one of the most important problems during tunnel construction,it is of great significance to investigate water and mud inrush. Based on the Cox Proportional Hazards Model,rock classification,situation of underground water,buried depth of tunnel,distance between layers,excavation time and with water and mud inrush happened or not,these 6 indexes were selected to quantify the risk of water and mud inrush in different regions in tunnel. A series of indicators were measured,the regression coefficients of impact factor were calculated based on Newton-Raphson iteration with the help of partial likelihood estimation. Taken Shiziyuan Tunnel as an example,water and mud inrush in different sections have been assessed,which can provide effective early warning during tunnel excavation.
出处
《宜春学院学报》
2017年第12期55-57,共3页
Journal of Yichun University
关键词
突水突泥
考克斯比例风险模型
隧道
偏似然估计
water and mud inrush
Cox proportion hazards model
tunnel
partial likelihood estimation
