摘要
云团移动会造成大规模光伏系统出力的大幅度波动,并影响区域电网频率的稳定性。基于此,文章提出了地基云图和中尺度数值天气预报模式相结合的修正预测方法,并利用该方法来分析云团的移动特性及其对太阳辐照度衰减情况的影响,得到光伏电站出力的波动幅度和爬坡速率。在此基础上,分析了光伏电站出力波动对区域电力系统调频情况的影响。研究结果表明,该预测方法能够较为准确地预测云团移动情况下太阳辐照度和光伏电站的发电功率,并确定了当区域电网中,光伏发电装机容量与常规发电机组装机容量的比值小于常规机组爬坡率与光伏发电爬坡率之比时,区域电力系统的调频能力能够应对云团移动情况下光伏发电功率波动引起的区域电网频率的变化。
The cloud cluster movement will cause power fluctuation of large scale photovoltaic（PV）power plants, which affects the regional power grid frequency stability. To get the output power characteristics of PV under the influence of the cloud, the forecast and modification method which combined ground-based cloud image and mesoscale numerical weather prediction mode was proposed to predict cloud movement characteristics and damping of solar irradiation. Then,amplitude of fluctuation and ramp rate of PV station output power were calculated. According to these results, the influence of the power system frequency regulation was analyzed. The comparison between the forecast curve and the measured curve shows that the solar irradiance and the power generation of PV station can be predicted accurately by the presented method in this paper.Meanwhile, regional power system frequency regulation capability is determined to tackle regional power gird frequency variation when the ratio of PV power station capacity to conventional generation capacity is less than the ratio of the slope of the conventional unit to the slope of the PV generation.
作者
王诚良
朱凌志
党东升
赵亮
丁煌
Wang Chengliang;Zhu Lingzhi;Dang Dongsheng;Zhao Liang;Ding Huang(Economic and Technological Research Institute, State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Co., Yinchuan 750001, China;State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy ＆ Storage Systems, China Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing 210003, China)
出处
《可再生能源》
CAS
北大核心
2017年第11期1626-1631,共6页
Renewable Energy Resources
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51607160)
国家电网公司科技项目(NY71-16-010)
关键词
云团移动
光伏发电
功率预测
出力特性
系统调频
cloud cluster movement
photovohaic power
power forecast
power characteristics
system frequency regulation
