摘要
将主导产业选择与主导产业升级结合起来进行研究.首先,利用因子分析法,以山东省为研究对象,构建一个可以对海洋产业进行测评的体系,选择该地区的海洋主导产业.山东省海洋主导产业应选取滨海旅游业、海水利用业、海洋渔业、海洋交通运输业和海洋工程建筑业.其次,利用灰色关联度方法,对海洋产业结构与海洋经济增长的关系进行了研究.海洋第三产业对海洋经济起到关键决定性作用.所以,山东省海洋主导产业应当着重加强属于第三产业的滨海旅游业和海洋交通运输业的升级.最后,利用时间序列模型对上述5个主导产业进行了未来趋势预测.滨海旅游业和交通运输业在未来几年相较其他3个产业增长更为迅速.
This article combines the leading industry selection and leading industry upgrading. Firstly, using the factor analysis method in Shandong province as the research object, we build the Shandong ocean evaluation system of leading industry and choose the ocean leading industries in the region. The results show that the marine leading industry of Shandong province should select the coastal tourism, seawater utilization, marine fishery, marine transportation and marine engineering construction. Then, the relationship between marine industrial structure and marine economic growth is studied by using the grey relational degree method. The results show that the marine third industry plays a crucial role in the marine economy. Therefore, the marine leading industry in Shandong province should focus on strengthening the coastal tourism industry and the upgrading of the marine transportation industry. Finally, this paper uses time series model of the five leading industries predicts the future trend, shows the final result of coastal tourism and transportation industry is growing rapidly in the coming years, and the other three industry growth is relatively slow.
出处
《河南科学》
2017年第11期1872-1878,共7页
Henan Science
基金
山东省社科规划课题(13CGLZ06)
山东省社科规划课题(17CJJJ41)
中国石油大学重大培育项目(13CX05040B)
