摘要
利用鲁中山区8个气象站点1958—2015年的月值气象数据,计算标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)并进行统计分析,探讨鲁中山区近58a干旱特征、干旱程度与频率和干旱的持续性。结果表明,1)1958—2015年鲁中山区年均气温呈显著增加趋势,其中春、秋、冬3季的气温增加最为显著;而年均降水量有下降趋势,但趋势不明显;2)鲁中山区自20世纪90年代后干旱趋于严重,最严重的年份分别是1988、2014、2001、1981年及2013年,严重干旱在近期呈现连续性。极端干旱的高频期则是1998—2007年,此后干旱频率与严重、极端干旱频率均有下降趋势;3)鲁中山区在10a时间尺度内,干旱持续最长时间基本稳定在3~7个月内,而平均干旱持续时间则表现为季节尺度的平均干旱持续时间增长,而年际尺度的则减小。
The variations of drought frequency and duration during 1958--2015 in the middle mountainous area of Shandong were analyzed and explored based on SPEI. The results indicated that 1） annual average temperatures significantly increased, and there was the most significant increase in spring, fall and winter, while the average annual precipitation decreased insignificantly. 2） Since the 1990s,drought tended to be more severe,and the most severe years were 1988,2014,2001,1981, and 2013. The frequency of extreme drought period was the longest during 1998- 2007, then the drought frequency and serious, extreme drought frequency displayed decrease trend. 3） The longest drought duration was from 3 to 7 months in the 10-year scale. Moreover,the mean drought duration of season scale increased,while that of annual scale re duced.
出处
《西北林学院学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期162-168,共7页
Journal of Northwest Forestry University
基金
山东省自然科学基金(ZR2014DL002)
泰山学院引进人才科研启动基金(Y-01-2014019)
关键词
干旱
SPEI
鲁中山区
drought
SPEI
Shandong middle mountainous area
