摘要
"房价是否有泡沫"一直是民众、媒体和政府讨论的焦点。为了探究房价是否具有泡沫,本文通过构建GDP、工资及房价之间理论传导模型,在此基础上,运用深圳1998~2015年数据,利用线性回归模型实证了GDP可以线性解释工资,工资可以线性解释房价。同时,发现2016年深圳平均房价偏离模型高估约32%,进而推测未来几年深圳房价不会延续过去几年态势继续快速上涨。
＂Whether the real-restate bubble exists＇has been a hot issue concerned by the public, the media and the government. In order to find out whether there is real-estate bubble, this paper built a transmission model between GDP, wages and real-estate prices. On this basis, using the data from Shenzhen from 1998 to 2015 and modeling with the linear regression model,we prove that GDP can explain the wages linearly, and, the wages can linearly explained real-estate prices.Meanwhile, 2016 Shenzhen average real-estate prices exceed the model fitted price about 32%. Then. we can infer that Shenzhen＇s real-estate prices rapidly rising trend won＇t continue.
出处
《特区经济》
2017年第10期37-40,共4页
Special Zone Economy
