摘要
地方政府债券是地方政府本着信用原则,在偿还本金并额外支付利息的前提下,为自身筹集资金而发行的债券.1994年的分税制改革,一度造成地方政府的事权与财权脱节,只能以大量举借债务作为投资渠道,随之而来的是债务规模膨胀.运用KMV模型评估福建省2016年以及2017年的地方债,考察其是否会出现违约风险,并通过实证研究得出地方政府的适度举债规模.实证结论印证,福建省地方债在2017年无违约风险;且福建省三年期债券的发债规模占其财政收入的比重低于20%,无违约风险;五年期债券的发债规模占财政收入的比重低于30%,无违约风险.
Local government bonds,commonly referred to as local government bonds,are bonds issued by local governments to raise money for themselves in the light of the principle of credit,in which they pay the principal and pay the extra interest. In 1994,the reform of the tax system resulted in the failure of local government to match the property rights,which could only be financed by borrowing debts,resulting in the gradual expansion of the debt. This article selects local debts of Fujian province in 2016 and 2017 as the research object,uses the modified KMV model to measure whether there are risks of default,and obtains the result of moderate raising debt scale by empirical study. The empirical conclusion confirms that local government debt in Fujian province in 2017 has no risk of default,the three-year bond issuance of Fujian province is accounted for less than 20% of its revenue,no risk of default,and the five-year bond issuance is accounted for less than 30% of its fiscal revenue,no risk of default.
出处
《长沙大学学报》
2017年第5期56-64,共9页
Journal of Changsha University
基金
福建省科技厅项目(批准号:826085)阶段性研究成果
关键词
KMV模型
地方债
风险评估
债务风险
paddy soil
available phosphorus
distribution feature
influence factors
