摘要
利用抚河临水流域内10个雨量站的1979—2008年降水观测数据,运用集中度、集中期、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和小波变换等方法对抚河临水流域降雨量变化特征及趋势进行了分析。结果表明:(1)临水流域年平均降雨量集中度在13.6%~52.9%之间,年际变化较大,多年平均的降雨集中期是主要集中在4—6月;(2)临水流域存在15 a和4 a左右尺度的周期性变化,其中,15 a尺度为变化主周期;(3)临水流域春季、秋季及冬季降雨量均存在减小趋势,春季降雨量在1984年发生突变,2003年以后春季降雨量减少趋势达到显著性,夏季降雨量突变发生在1992年,之后降雨量开始增加,在1998—2002年增加显著,秋季降雨量突变点发生在1992年,冬季降雨量总体呈减少趋势,但减少趋势不明显,年降雨量突变点在1984、2002年,2002年之后降雨量开始呈减少趋势。
Based on precipitation observation data from 10 precipitation stations in Fuhe-Linshui river basin,this paper analyzed the variation characteristics and trend of the precipitation from 1979 to 2008 by precipitation concentration degree（PCD）,precipitation concentration period（PCP） and Mann-Kendall method.The results showed that（1）The PCD was between 13.6% and 52.9%,and the interannual variation of precipitation was significant.The PCP was mainly concentrated from April to June.（2）The major periods of precipitation time series were about 15 years and 4 years scale,and the precipitation generally experienced seven phases in the time series：increasing-decreasing-increasing-decreasing-increasing-decreasing-increasing.（3）The precipitation decreased in spring,autumn and winter,but the spring precipitation had a sudden change in 1984,and the decrease of rainfall in spring after 2003 was significant.The summer precipitation had a sudden change in 1992,then it began to increase,which was significantly increased in 1998-2002.The autumn precipitation had a sudden change in1992 and winter rainfall showed a decrease trend,but it was not obvious.The winter precipitation had sudden changes in 1984 and 2002,and it began to decrease after 2002.
出处
《人民珠江》
2017年第10期27-32,46,共7页
Pearl River
基金
国家自然科学青年基金(51309130)
江西省科技厅青年基金项目(20132BAB213025)
南昌工程学院青年科学基金项目(2014KJ001)
江西省大学生创新创业教育计划项目(201411319019)
关键词
降水
MANN-KENDALL检验
小波分析
集中度
集中期
临水流域
precipitation
Mann-Kendall test
Wavelet analysis
Precipitation concentration degree(PCD)
Precipitation concentration period(PCP)
Linshui river basin
