摘要
水电工程项目风险来源存在多元化和复杂性的特点,对水电工程风险进行合理科学的评估是保障水电项目顺利推进的基础。考虑到水电项目建设期内风险因素存在相互关联和影响,提出了基于距离熵优化等级全息-解析结构模型(HHM-ISM模型),对黄登水电站项目的风险因素影响程度进行评价。结果表明,该模型能准确清晰地实现风险因素的层级划分和定量评价,为大型水电项目建设期风险管控提供参考。
Due to the diversity and complexity of risk sources in the construction of hydropower projects, it is necessary to conduct reasonable and scientific risk assessment to ensure the smooth implementation of hydropower projects. As the risk factors in construction period are interrelated and influenced each other, the Hierarchical Holographic Modeling-Interpretive Structural Modeling （ HHM-ISM model） optimized by distance entropy is proposed to evaluate the significance of risk factors for Huangdeng Hydropower Station. The case study shows that the model can accurately and clearly explore the hierarchy classification and conduct quantitative evaluation for risk factors. The study provides references on risk management of large- scale hydropower projects.
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2017年第10期87-93,98,共8页
Water Power
关键词
风险评价
距离熵
等级全息建模
解析结构模型
黄登水电站
risk assessment
distance entropy
Hierarchical Holographic Modeling
Interpretive Structural Modeling
Huangdeng Hydropower Station
