摘要
在水库群短期优化调度的风险分析问题中既需要考虑径流预报误差、水流滞时的影响,又需要处理大量的模拟计算。从风险管理的角度出发,构建了考虑径流预报误差、滞时的不确定性2类风险因子耦合作用的水库群短期优化调度风险分析模型,并引入并行求解技术,提高了模型的求解效率。以雅砻江流域2水电站的短期优化调度风险分析为例,对模型的有效性及并行求解的高效性进行了验证。所提方法操作简单且兼具实用性,对发电计划的制定及水库的运行管理方面有重要的指导意义。
It is important to makes a risk analysis of short-term optimal operations, owing to the runoff prediction error, water delay and a large number of numerical simulations. In this paper, short-term optimal operation risk analysis model considering the runoff prediction error and water delay is established in the view of risk management, and parallel computing is used to improve solution efficiency. As an example, the model is applied to Yalong River, The validity of the model and the efficiency of parallel solution are verified. It is shown that the model is not only simple and effective, but also very significant to making power generation planning or reservoir operation management.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2017年第9期181-185,190,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
"十三五"国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0402208
2016YFC0402308
2016YFC0402309)
国家自然科学基金(51279062
51679088)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(JB2015169
2016MS51)
中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金资助(IWHR-SKL-201420)
关键词
并行计算
水流滞时
风险分析
水库群
parallel computing
water delay
risk analysis
reservoir group
