摘要
本文基于进口需求模型,采用SYSGMM方法,并结合反事实估计,测算我国多个自贸区对中国农产品进口的贸易创造和贸易转移效应,研究结论表明:中国东盟自贸区、中国新西兰自贸区、中国秘鲁自贸区对中国农产品进口存在贸易创造效应,不存在贸易转移效应;中国新加坡自贸区、中国瑞士自贸区对中国农产品进口既不存在贸易创造效应,也不存在贸易转移效应。中国东盟自贸区贸易创造效应较大,并且存在较长的持续性;中国新西兰自贸区、中国秘鲁自贸区贸易创造占贸易增长比例较大,其中中国新西兰自贸区效应逐年较稳定的递减,中国秘鲁自贸区变化幅度较大。
Based on import demand regression model,this paper adopts the SYSGMM and counterfactual method to measure trade creation( TC) and trade diversion( TD) effects of multiple FTA on China's agricultural imports. The findings show that CAFTA,China-New Zealand FTA and China-Peru FTA have only TC effects. China-Singapore FTA and China-Switzerland FTA have neither TC nor TD effects. The TC effect of CAFTA is the largest,which will exist for a long time. In addition,the TCeffects of China-New Zealand FTA and China-Peru FTA account for a relatively larger proportion in their respective trade growth. Besides,the TC effect of China-New Zealand FTA gradually decreases,meanwhile the TC effect of China-Peru FTA has a substantial change.
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第9期76-84,共9页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
