摘要
根据冲击地压危险性评价的相关理论,采用系统决策法和灰色理论,建立组合预测数学模型,研究冲击地压所属级别。充分利用大量历史数据,选取煤层冲击倾向性、采深、煤层稳定性、煤层倾角、地质构造、巷道支护效果和卸压情况等7个关键因素作为评判指标,将定性、定量因素标准化处理后分别采用层次分析法和灰色关联分析法来确定7个因素的权重和灰色关联度,建立层次灰色组合预测模型判定冲击地压等级。工程实例表明,研究结果与现场具有很好的一致性,说明该预测方法处理冲击地压分级这种具有一定主观性和灰色性的问题是合理可行的。
According to the theories of risk evaluation on rock burst,system decisions method and grey theory were used to establish a combined mathematical model to predict the grade of the rock burst.Taking advantage of large quantity of historical data,seven critical factors were selected as the evaluation indexes,including rock burst tendency,mining depth,coal seam stability,dip angle,geological structure,supporting effect and pressure relief. After the standardization of the qualitative and quantitative factors,analytic hierarchy process and grey relational analysis were used to determine the weight and grey relational degree of the seven factors to establish a hierarchy-grey prediction model to judge the grade of the rock burst.The engineering cases show that the results are in good consistency with the field. The results indicate that the prediction method is reasonable and feasible to solve the subjective and grey grading problem for the rock burst.
出处
《山西煤炭》
2017年第4期53-56,共4页
Shanxi Coal
关键词
冲击地压
预测
灰色关联分析
层次分析法
rock burst
prediction
grey relational analysis
analytic hierarchy process
