摘要
分析了青藏高原地区的交通事故数据,发现大部分交通事故都是死伤人数较高的事故,即死伤事故占比较大。将事故严重程度作为因变量,选取海拔、氧含量、天气、事故地点的线形、事故地点的环境、肇事车辆的类型、交通量、大车比例、大小车的速度差等9个因素作为自变量,建立了累积Logistic回归预测模型,研究了影响高原地区交通事故严重程度的因素。结果表明:海拔、大车比例、交通量、肇事车辆类型和大小车的速度差与交通事故严重程度有显著的相关性。预测模型的建立能够为相关公路管理部门制定安全措施提供理论依据。
Based on the analysis of traffic accident data of Qinghai-Tibetan plateau, it is found that most of the traffic accidents are of high casualties, which means the proportion of accidents with deaths and injuries is relatively larger. The cumulative Logistic regression was used to research the factors which affected the severity of traffic accidents in plateau area. The collected accident severity was selected as the dependent variable. The altitude of the environment, the oxygen content, the weather, the linear and environment of the accident site, the type of the vehicle, the traffic volume, carts ratio, the speed difference between cart and car were selected as independent variables. Therefore, the cumulative Logistic regression model was established. The results show that five independent variables including altitude, carts ratio, the vehicle type and the speed difference between the cart and the car are significantly correlated with the severity of accident. This prediction model can provide theoretical basis for the related highway management departments to make safety measures.
出处
《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2017年第7期106-110,共5页
Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)
基金
国家科技支撑计划课题(2014BAG05B02)
