摘要
实现经济的可持续增长和顺利步入高等收入国家行列是中国今后经济发展的重要目标。通过建立面板平滑门限回归模型(PSTR),研究不同收入水平下中国经济增长的动力特征,并对中国陷入"中等收入陷阱"的风险性进行分析,进而探讨其合理规避路径。实证结果表明:相关变量对经济增长的影响路径随着人均收入水平的提高发生平滑转移;不同收入阶段,产业结构和贸易开放度对经济增长的影响路径高度相似;人均收入超过2万元以后,收入对经济增长的潜在动力作用消失,产业结构、最终消费率、贸易开放度和城乡收入差距对经济增长的影响系数稳定在1.5%、-30%、10%和10%的水平,对经济增长的消极效果大于积极效果;进入中等收入阶段以后,如果不能改变现有经济增长方式。
To achieve sustainable economic growth and enter the ranks of high-income countries is an important goal of Chinas economic development in the future. Through the establishment of a panel smooth threshold regression model between the economic growth and the influencing factors, we study the dynamic characteristics of Chinas economic growth of different income levels and analysis the risk of our country into the ＂middle-income trap＂ ,and then explore the reasonable path to avoid the ＂middle-income trap＂. The empirical results show that the influence path of related variables on economic growth have several smooth transition with the increasing of per capita income level; the impact of industrial structure and trade openness on economic growth is highly similar at different income levels; the potential dynamic effects of income on economic growth disappear when the per capita income beyond 20 thousand yuan,and the impact of industrial structure, final consumption rate, trade openness and income gap between urban and rural economic growth are stable at 1. 5% ,-30%, 10% and 10% level, and the negative effect on economic growth is greater than the positive effect. If we can＇t change the way of economic growth, we will fall into the ＂middle income trap＂ Therefore,we should guard against the risk of ＂medium income trap＂ under the new economic norm, and fully exploit the new momentum of economic growth to achieve sustainable economic growth and high income targets.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第9期37-45,共9页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家社会科学基金项目<供给侧结构性改革视角下提高我国制造业全要素生产率的路径研究>(16BJY070)
