摘要
通过构造GMM面板模型,对"金砖国家"政府债务规模与经济增长之间的非线性关系进行了实证检验,验证了"金砖国家"政府债务阀值的存在及其动态性,并发现通货膨胀、利率变化、汇率变化、金融发展状况等都会引起政府债务对经济增长非线性影响的波动。利用门槛效应模型测算出"金砖国家"政府债务阀值为30%,当政府债务负担率低于此值时,政府债务对经济增长有较大促进作用,但当债务负担率超过此值时,政府债务对经济增长的积极效应则开始消失,最终表现为对经济增长的消极影响。目前,多数"金砖国家"已经超过这一临界值,因此"金砖国家"需要加强监控,防范政府债务风险问题的发生。
By constructing the GMM panel model,this paper makes an empirical test on the non-linear relationship between the government debt size and the economic growth of the BRICS（Brazil,Russia,India,China and South Africa）,and validates the existence and dynamic of the government debt threshold of the BRICS.The test concludes that such factors as inflation,interest rate changes,exchange rate changes,financial development and the like can cause nonlinear impact of government debt on economic growth to fluctuate.In this paper,the threshold effect model is used to calculate the threshold value of government debt of the BRICS,which is 30%.When the government debt burden rate is lower than this value,the government debt has a great effect on economic growth.When the debt burden rate exceeds this value,the positive effects of government debt on economic growth begin to disappear,and ultimately it will have a negative impact on economic growth.At present,most BRICS have exceeded this threshold,so BRICS need to take measures to monitor and provent government debt risk.
作者
蔡玉
李东阳
OAI Yu LI Dongyang(College of International Economics and Trade, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China)
出处
《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2017年第3期46-54,共9页
Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目:"我国战略性新兴产业全球网络布局及其投资策略研究"(13JJD790002)
关键词
政府债务
经济增长
门槛效应
阀值
government debt
economic growth
threshold effect
threshold
