摘要
文章基于持久收入假说和盖尔顿收入均值模型,梳理税收对收入流动性的影响机理,利用动态面板系统GMM和面板有序Logistic回归模型,分析多维收入流动性与税收政策之间的联动作用机制。研究发现:(1)税收负担是影响城镇居民绝对和相对收入流动的主要原因之一,但其作用程度受到各地区家庭人口结构的影响。地区平均家庭就业人口少于2人时,减税政策能够增加地区绝对收入的流动性,但降低了地区收入位次向上移动的概率,这一结果与家庭就业人口为2人及以上的地区相反。(2)个人所得税费用扣除标准占家庭人均月收入的比重高的地区,其绝对收入的流动性和收入位次向上移动的概率均低于其他省份。(3)历年个人所得税改革对提高绝对收入流动性的正向效应较为显著。此外,劳动力受教育年限、收入来源结构、产业结构及城市化程度等因素对收入流动性的影响也呈现出阶段性和异质性。这意味着税收制度设置应凸显家庭及地区的特征因素,注重横向和纵向公平课税原则,促进居民收入区域间的流动,降低收入固化程度,实现收入分配的动态均衡。
Based on the lasting income hypothesis and Galton income average model,this paper summarizes the mechanism of the effect of tax on income mobility.Then it analyzes the linkage between dimensional income mobility and tax policy by systematic dynamic panel GMM model and panel Logistic regression in order.It arrives at the following conclusions：firstly,tax burden is one of the key reasons for affecting absolute and relative income mobility of urban residents;the interacting intensity is mostly determined by family workforce structure in the various regions;the reduction in tax burden increases absolute regional income mobility and reduces the upward probability of place when regional average family employed members are less than two,which are the opposite of the results when regional average family employed members are equal to or more than two.Secondly,absolute income mobility and upward probability of income place are less than ones in other provinces with higher proportion of deduction standard of individual income tax to family monthly income per capita.Thirdly,the reform of individual income tax has the significantly positive effect on the increase in absolute income mobility each year.In addition,the effects of the factors such as years of education,structure of income sources,industrial structure,and the degree of urbanization on income mobility present the characteristics of the stages and regional heterogeneity.It means that the tax system should give family and regional characteristics considerable prominence,focus on horizontal and vertical equity tax principle,promote the flow of residents＇ income between regions,lower income curing degree,and realize the dynamic equilibrium of income distribution.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第8期43-55,共13页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403050)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(13YJA790008)
北京市哲学社会科学青年基金项目(13JGC064)
