摘要
使用2013年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,在用断点回归方法控制养老保险制度对退休行为的影响的基础上,建立Probit模型考察了不同婚姻状态对我国城镇女性退休行为的影响。研究发现:(1)达到养老金领取资格使城镇女性的退休概率显著提高了17.8个百分点;(2)在养老保险政策对城镇女性退休行为施加影响的条件下,与未婚的女性相比,有配偶的、离异的以及丧偶的城镇女性退出劳动力市场的可能性均显著下降;(3)城镇女性的退休决策也受到年龄、受教育程度、健康、个人经济收入、兄弟姐妹人数、子女收入等因素的影响。这为今后调整退休政策提供了依据。
On the basis of controlling the impact of endowment insurance system on retirement with the method of the regression discontinuity, this paper establishes a Probit model to examine the impact of different marital status on urban women＇s retirement in China by using the data from Chi- na Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey 2013. The fmdings show that： firstly, the probability of retirement of urban women has significantly increased by 17.8% for reaching the qualification for the pension; secondly, under the condition of the endowment insurance policy exerting influence on wom- en＇s retirement behavior, the probability of the married, divorced or widowed urban women exiting the labor market is significantly reduced compared with the unmarried women; thirdly, the retirement decisions made by the urban women are impacted by such factors as age, schooling, health, personal economic income, number of siblings, children＇s income and so on. This provides a basis for adjust- ing the retirement policies in the future.
作者
林相森
白金
LIN Xiang-sen BAI Jin(Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430074, Chin)
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第8期3-13,共11页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
中南财经政法大学青年教师创新项目"着眼于解决我国养老金缺口问题的延迟退休政策研究"(2014003)
关键词
婚姻状态
养老保险政策
退休
断点回归
PROBIT模型
marital status
endowment insurance policy
retirement
regression discontinuity
Pro-bit model
