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2014年夏玉米乳熟期渍涝过程的环流特征及预报因子分析 被引量:2

Circulation Characteristics and Forecast Factors Analysis of an Water-logging Process at Milk-ripe Stage of Summer Maize in 2014
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摘要 为了更好地理解夏玉米乳熟期灾害性渍涝过程的天气学成因,更好地服务于河南省气象防灾减灾工作,利用美国NCEP/NCAR的2.5°×2.5°再分析日平均资料和常规气象观测数据,对河南省一次高影响、长时间的渍涝过程的环流背景、气象要素条件进行分析。结果表明:(1)渍涝过程有显著的环流特征,即对流层中高层稳定维持着乌拉尔山及鄂霍次克海的异常高脊和巴尔喀什湖以北及日本上空的异常低槽;出现并维持200 h Pa高空急流;持续偏东偏北的南亚高压和持续偏西的副热带高压;(2)渍涝过程中边界层内维持偏东风,偏东风的开始和结束与降水起始时间相对应;偏东风的增强和东风异常配合西南风异常暖湿往往对应连阴雨过程中降水量级的明显增大;(3)500 h Pa平均高度场和高度距平场沿50°E的纬度-时间剖面(简称55图)在中期时段内能较好地预报连阴雨过程的开始和大致维持时间。 To better understand the synoptic cause of water-logging process at milk-ripe stage of summer maize, and provide better service to meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation in Henan, NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5° reanalysis daily average data and conventional meteorological observation data were used to analyze the circulation conditions and characteristics of temperature, humidity and wind of a high-impact and long- standing water- logging process. The results showed that: (1) the water-logging process had a significant circulation characteristic, which meant upper troposphere stably maintained unusual high-wedges over the Ural Mountains and the Okhotsk Maintains constantly as well as unusual low-trough over the Balkhash Lake and Japan; the jet stream on 200 hPa happened and maintained; south Asia high maintained eastward and northward as well as subtropical high maintained westward; (2) a low boundary-layer-easterly wind happened and maintained during the progress, the beginning and ending of easterly wind corresponds with the rainfall; the enhancement and unusual change of easterly wind cooperating with the unusual-warm on 700 hPa corresponded with obvious rainfall increase; (3) average and anomaly height on 500 hPa along 50° E-time section (Figure 55) could be used in prediction of the continuous-rain' s beginning and maintaining time in medium time.
出处 《中国农学通报》 2017年第18期81-87,共7页 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金 中国气象局-河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室"河南省夏玉米涝渍灾害预报预警技术研究"(AMF201307) 中国气象局预报员专项"2014年秋季连阴雨过程的诊断分析及预报模型的改进"(CMAYBY2015-045)
关键词 夏玉米乳熟期 连阴雨 环流特征 边界层偏东风 55图 milk-ripe stage of summer maize continuous rain circulation characteristic the boundary layereasterly wind figure 55
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