摘要
为更真实反映贸易增加值来源,基于全球价值链的视角,本文在出口增加值分解的框架下对世界投入产出表(WIOD)进行分解计算,分别从出口总量、出口结构、双边贸易以及中间品出口对中俄双边贸易进行了剖析。研究表明:中国对俄的出口总量逐年在上升,但是通过增加值分解发现本国增加值在中国对俄出口的比重在下降,而这部分占比代表中国对俄出口所带来的真实价值,这可以说明传统贸易核算方法高估了中国对俄罗斯的出口;相较于俄罗斯,中国对俄的出口结构一直在不断优化升级;中国对俄出口中制造业占据绝大部分,而且出口的制造业产品中知识密集型产品的占比在不断上升,俄罗斯对中国的出口中初级产品和资源产品占据绝对的主体地位。对双边贸易收支以及中间品出口的分析,发现中国正在不断减少对俄罗斯经济的依赖程度。
In order to more truly reflect the source of value-added in trade, based on the perspective of global value chain, this thesis uses the World＇s Inputs-Outputs Database （WIOD） to analyze the trade between China and Russia re- spectively from total exports, export structure, bilateral trade volume and export of intermediates under the framework of exports value-added decomposition. Research shows that： the total amount of China＇s exports to Russia increased year by year, but value-added decomposition shows that domestic value-added declined in China share of exports to Russia and this part proportion represents the true value of Chinese exports to Russia, which shows that China＇s exports to Russia was overvalued under the traditional trade accounting methods; compared with Russia, the structure of China＇s exports to Russia has been in continuous upgrading; the manufacturing sector accounts for most of China＇s export to Russia, the proportion of knowledge intensive products is increasing, and primary products and resource products occupy the absolute dominant position of Russia＇s exports to China. Through the analysis of bilateral trade and intermediate good＇s export, this thesis finds that China is constantly reducing dependence on Russian economy.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第6期86-94,共9页
Commercial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目"国际贸易对我国碳排放效率的影响及政策研究"
项目编号:71303176
