摘要
文章从债务通缩理论传导渠道的视角系统评述了债务通缩理论产生和演进的发展脉络,并以此为理论基础在现代经济条件下从债务通缩产生的初始条件、触发条件以及适用部门三个维度对债务通缩理论进行了重要拓展,并提出了一个新债务通缩理论的分析框架——三部门债务通缩论。三部门债务通缩论不仅适用于企业部门,同时也适用于居民和政府部门。之后,文章运用三部门债务通缩论全面分析、评估了中国爆发债务通缩的可能性。研究结果表明,当前中国爆发债务通缩的总体风险可控,但风险在加大。未来政府应积极降低非金融企业债务水平,坚决落实供给侧改革,促进价格水平回升;同时也要鼓励银行积极处置不良贷款,关注债券市场风险,在经济企稳回升前维持适度宽松的货币环境,避免债务通缩的爆发。
This paper systematically reviews the development and evolution of debt deflation theory from the perspective of transmission channel of debt deflation theory.On the basis of predecessors'researches,it makes an important expansion of debt deflation theory from preconditions,triggering conditions and applicable sectors of debt deflation under modern economic conditions.Debt deflation theory applies not only to the corporate sector,but also to residents and government sector.After that,this paper uses the extended debt deflation theory to analyze and evaluate the possibility of breaking out debt deflation in China.The results show that the overall risk of debt deflation in China is controllable,but the risk is increasing.In the future,the government should actively reduce the debt level of non-financial enterprises,resolutely implement the supply side reform to promote the recovery of price level,encourage banks to actively deal with non-performing loans,pay attention to the risk of bond market,maintain a moderately loose monetary environment before the economy stabilizes,and avoid the outbreak of debt deflation.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第6期28-39,共12页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:14XSH019)的支持
