摘要
为了定量判断2020年洛阳市人均GDP能否达到比2010年翻一番的目标,选取洛阳市1978年到2014年人均GDP数据建立ARMA(2,2)模型,并预测出2015~2020年洛阳市人均GDP的发展状况.结果显示,"十三五"时期洛阳市人均GDP年平均增长速度为4.63%,到2020年预计将达到65550.75元,是2010年人均GDP的1.85倍,但按照2010年全国人均GDP为基准,将能够实现翻一番的目标.
Many people wonder that Luoyang＇ s per capita GDP in 2020 can achieve double goal compared with that in 2010. The ARMA （2,2） model was established based on Luoyang＇ s per capita GDP data from 1978 to 2014. And 2015 -2020 per capita GDPs in Luoyang were forecasted. The results show that the average annual rate of the per capita GDP during the Thirteenth Five - year plan will be about 4.63 %. The per capita GDP in 2020 will reach 65550.75 yuan, which is 1.85 times as much as that in 2010. But in view of 2010 per capita GDP in China, the double goal for 2020 per capita GDP in Luoyang will be achieved.
出处
《商丘师范学院学报》
CAS
2017年第3期12-17,共6页
Journal of Shangqiu Normal University
基金
河南省国际科技合作计划项目(134300510034)
河南科技大学大学生研究训练计划项目(2015075)
