摘要
采集刚察县近55年来的平均温度、降水量、湿度、风向等气象数据,采用滑动平均法、趋势分析法、Morlet小波分析和Mann-Kendall突变分析等方法,分析研究区域近几十年来的气候变化特征。研究结果表明,刚察县湖盆区气候变化比较明显,主要呈现"干热"的变化趋势。通过小波分析发现,气候各变量均有准3~4a的周期性变化,这种周期性变化随着时间的推移而波动。通过突变分析,发现蒸发量和平均风速有显著的突变性,且突变分别始于2004年和2003年。
This paper mainly analyzes various meteorological data of Gangcha Country in recent 55 years such as average temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind direction, utilizes the moving average meth- od, trend analysis method, Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall mutation analysis, this paper is aimed at specific analyzing the climatic change characteristics in the area of recent decades.Results show that the climatic change characteristics in lake basin area of Gangcha Country is relative obvious,it mainly presents the change trend of dry heat.Through the wavelet analysis ,each climatic variable has the periodical change of quasi 3-4 a,this periodical change will fluctuate along with the passage of time.Through the mutation analysis ,the evaporation capacity and average wind speed have remarkable mutability and their mutation respectively date from 2004 and 2003.
作者
孙逸涵
潘进军
俞文政
邵立
Sun Yihan Pan Jinjun Yu Wenzheng Shao Li(Public Weather Service Center of China Meteorological Administration ,Beijing 100081 , China College of Applied Meteorology ,Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology ,Nanjing 210044 ,China)
出处
《甘肃科学学报》
2017年第2期48-57,共10页
Journal of Gansu Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目资助(41375160)
江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目资助(2010JDXM027)
关键词
刚察县
湖盆区
气候变化
Gangcha country
Lake basin area
Climatic change
