摘要
利用观测数据,运用非线性统计-动力学方法,反演系统各因子之间的相互关系,建立了东亚亚热带季风变化的动力方程,为研究东亚亚热带季风的驱动机制提供了量化参考。研究发现:过去2 000 a东亚亚热带季风是多因子通过反馈机制相互作用影响且具有耦合效应的复杂非线性动力系统,其驱动力主要来源于普若岗日冰芯δ18О代表的青藏高原热力作用强迫、太阳黑子活动、ENSO、温室气体单因子CO_2和CH_4浓度、北极温度和CH_4及北极温度与7月太阳辐射的耦合作用机制;反馈调节作用主要源于7月太阳辐射与太阳黑子活动、CH_4浓度、中国陆地地表温、CH_4与7月太阳辐射以及CO_2和CH_4的耦合调节作用。并通过动力反演机制推论热带西太平洋对亚热带季风有一定驱动作用,但并不是主要驱动力,即驱动亚热带季风变化的主源地并不在热带西太平洋海区,石笋δ^(18)О指代的也主要是夏季风信息。
In this article, a nonlinear statistical-dynamical model was used to inverse the interaction between dif- ferent factors and the dynamic equation of the East Asian subtropical monsoon is established by using the ob- served data. It provides a quantitative reference for study on the driving mechanism of the subtropical mon- soon in East Asia. Research shows that the East-Asian subtropical monsoon is a complex nonlinear dynamical system with multi-factors interacting by feedback mechanisms and coupling effectsover the past two millennia. Its driving force mainly comes from the Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing with the Puruogangri ice core δ18O, sunspot activity, ENSO, greenhouse gas CO2 and CH4 concentrations, and the coupling mechanism between the Arctic temperature and CH4, as well as the Arctic temperature and the solar radiation in July. Feedback regula- tion mainly comes from the solar radiation in July and sunspot activity, CH4 concentration, land surface temper- ature in China, the coupling regulation mechanism between the solar radiation in July and CH4, as well as CO2 and CH4. It is inferred that the tropical western Pacific has a certain driving effect on the subtropical monsoon of East Asia through the dynamic inversion mechanism, but not the main driving force, namely the main source that drives the subtropical monsoon changes is not in the sea area of tropical western Pacific, and stalag- mite δ18O is mainly referred to the features of summer monsoon information.
出处
《地理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第3期445-454,共10页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31470519)
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20131399)
江苏省高校优势学科建设工程项目资助~~
关键词
东亚亚热带季风
统计动力学反演
驱动机制
和尚洞石笋
subtropical monsoon in East Asian
statistical-dynamical inversion
driving mechanism
HeshangCave stalagmite
