摘要
通过对呼浩特本站常年降水统计,发现:呼和浩特降水相态转变主要发生在3~4月和10~11月。应用呼和浩特地区2008-2013年冬季降水过程的地面和探空资料,针对不同的降水相态,找出了与雨雪转换关系密切的5种物理量作为降水相态的判据,即:T_(850),T_(700),H_(850-500),-5℃高度和2 m温度。通过定量细化上述5个物理量在3种相态中的特征,研究了呼和浩特地区冬季降水相态的客观预报指标。检验表明:综合判据对于呼和浩特地区3种降水相态的预报准确率达到了65.9%,基本可以满足呼和浩特地区降水相态的判断。利用2014年呼和浩特本站的地面和探空数据对呼和浩特冬季降水判据进行检验,温度类的判据对降水相态的预报效果要明显好于厚度类判据;厚度类判据对雨的预报效果好于雪和雨夹雪。
Abstract： According to the daily data of conventional surface observation from 1981 to 2010, the change of precipi- tation phase mainly occurred in March, April, October and November. Based on the surface and sounding data of winter precipitation from 2008 to 2013 in Hohhot, T850 ,T700, H850-500, -5℃ height and 2 m temperature were cho- sen as the criterion of precipitation phase. Based on the quantitative analysis of the features of five physical quanti- ties in three phases, the objective forecast indexes of winter precipitation in Hohhot have been studied. The test shows that the accuracy of each physical quantity in the phase state prediction can reach up to 65.9% , and this cri- terion can basically meet the judgment of the precipitation state in Hohhot. Through testing with the data in 2014, the prediction with temperature criterion is better than thickness criterion, and thickness criterion is suitable to fore- cast the rain.
出处
《内蒙古林业科技》
2017年第1期42-47,共6页
Journal of Inner Mongolia Forestry Science and Technology
基金
呼和浩特市气象局科技创新项目"呼和浩特市近5年降水相态变化研究"资助
关键词
冬季降水
识别判据
温度
厚度
winter precipitation
identification criterion
temperature
thickness
