摘要
以南方地区15个辐射站1981-2014年逐日常规气象资料和大气顶层辐射(Ra)为输入参数,以辐射站观测的逐日地表总辐射量(R_s)为对照,分别利用1981-2009年气象资料以及5种经验模型(?ngstr?m-Presscott模型、Bahel模型、Bristow-Campbell模型、Chen模型和Hargreaves模型)和12种不同参数组合形式的广义回归神经网络(GRNN)建立R_s估算模型,并对以上模型模拟效果进行对比分析,利用2010-2014年数据对各模型模拟精度进行验证,最后采用相邻站点资料建立模型,使用本站数据评价模型的适用性。结果表明:经验模型中Chen模型精度最高,其次是Bahel模型,Bristow-Campbell模型与Hargreaves模型相比在大部分站点精度相差不大。当缺乏本地资料时,Bahel模型精度最高的站点有9个,而Chen模型最适宜的站点为7个;15个站中有13个站点B-C模型比Hargreaves模型精度更高,但在武汉站和赣州站,Hargreaves模型精度更高,其RMSE降低约14%。输入参数为日照百分比时GRNN模型的平均RMSE最低,优于Bahel和Chen模型,但其各站平均RMSE相差不足2%。当仅有本站气象资料时,GRNN模型与Bristow-Campbell模型和Hargreaves模型相比,其RMSE下降约14%,但使用邻近站点数据建模时,由于光滑因子在各站差异较大,GRNN模型与Bristow-Campbell模型和Hargreaves模型精度相差不大。因此,考虑到GRNN模型建模较复杂,故认为Bahel模型和Chen模型为南方地区更适宜的R_s估算模型。
Validation of global radiation models with measured daily data based on the meteorological data（including the extraterrestrial radiation） from 15 radiation stations in South China during 1981-2009.The daily global solar radiation was estimated using five empirical models（i.e., Angstrom-Presscott model, Bahel model, Bristow-Campbell model, Chen model and Hargreaves model） and 12 generalized regression neural network models（GRNN） with different input variable combinations.The performance of these global radiation models were evaluated using observed daily global solar radiation data during 2010-2014 at the 15 radiation stations.Finally, the global radiation models were developed by meteorological data from the adjacent stations, and then evaluated the applicability of these models using the observed data from the studied station.The results showed that the Chen model had the highest accuracy among the empirical models, followed by the Bahel model.The Bristow-Campbell model performed similarly to the Hargreaves model for most radiation stations.The Bahel model had the highest accuracy at 9 of 15 radiation stations when developing models by using the meteorological data from the adjacent stations, while the Chen model was most suitable for 7 stations.The Bristow-Campbell model and Hargreaves model had higher accuracy at 13 of 15 stations.But the Hargreaves model performed better at the Wuhan station and Ganzhou station, where the RMSE was decreased by about 14%.The GRNN model had the lowest average RMSE with input variable of sunshine percentage, which was better than the Bahel model and Chen model, but the difference in average RMSE at each station was less than 2%.When using the local meteorological data, the RMSE of the GRNN model was decreased by about 14% compared to that of the Bristow-Campbell model and the Hargreaves model.When using the data from the adjacent stations, the GRNN model performed similarly to the Bristow-Campbell model and the Hargreaves model due to the large differences in the smoothing factor at each station.Therefore, the Bahel model and the Chen model were considered to be more suitable for the estimation of global solar radiation in these areas considering the complexity of GRNN model development.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第3期150-162,共13页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
江西省教育厅资助项目(GJJ151123)
国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)(2011AA100504)
国家自然科学基金(51409131)
江西省科技支撑计划(20151BBF60013)
