摘要
在对外战略转换过程中,存在着游离于决策制度和程序之外的复杂的权势博弈,博弈的一方是在制度设计中被赋予特殊地位的政治统帅,另一方则是以理性决策为基础的专业官僚队伍。决定双方在博弈中胜出的关键,是政治统帅的个性特点和官僚群体的权势集合。在统帅个性不变的情况下,官僚群体的集合权势越大,在政策博弈中胜出的概率越高,最后的政策也就越倾向于官僚群体的立场。而在官僚群体权势不变的情况下,统帅个性越强,在坚持个人偏好方面就越固执,其在政策博弈中胜出的几率就越高,最后决策也就越倾向于统帅的个人偏好。对比公元前166年和公元前133年汉廷两次对匈奴战略决策过程中统帅与官僚群体之间的博弈细节,可以较好地印证上述理论。而在相同的政治制度背景中,统帅与官僚群体之间博弈的四种类型呈现的结果并不完全相异。加入时间的维度,双方博弈的最终结果符合统帅个人偏好的几率远较其他几种结果更高。如果不深入分析决策细节,观察者会很容易把决策结果看成是统帅个人的专断独裁甚至是随心妄为。这种发现对于我们观察传统中国和理解当下中国对外战略转换不无裨益。
In the course of foreign policy strategy transition,there is a complex power game that is played outside of decision making institutions and formal processes,with parties to the contest being on one hand those with special standing vis-à-vis political leadership,and on the other the ranks of the professional bureaucracy,which bases its approach on decision making logic.The outcome of this game is determined by the individual characteristics of political leaders and the ability of bureaucratic collectivities to centralize their power.The article compares the details of the contests that occurred between political leaders and the bureaucracy within the Han Court in the years 166B.C.and 133B.C.with respect to policy making vis-à-vis the Huns to provide support for this theory.Against similar political backgrounds,the results of four types of games between political leaders and the bureaucracy are not completely different.Considering also the factor of time,the probability that the final outcome of the contest between the two parties is aligned with the personal preferences of political leaders is higher than other outcomes.If the details of the decision making process are not carefully studied,observers might otherwise mistakenly conclude that the policy result is simply the authoritarian demands of the political leaders,or made on the basis of whim alone.
出处
《当代亚太》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期71-108,共38页
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies
基金
"中国人民大学2016年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划"成果
关键词
传统中国
对外战略
官僚群体
政治统帅
复杂博弈
Traditional China
Foreign Strategy
Bureaucratic Group
Political Leadership
Complex Game
