摘要
对分布式电源配电网造价风险进行准确评估,可以保障分布式电源配电网的安全运行。进行风险评估时,需要计算电网造价的最大化投资收益,获取分布式电源配电网工程造价风险因素,而传统的神经学习估算法通过建立神经网络模型对电网造价相关数据特征进行提取,不能计算电网造价的最大化投资收益,存在风险评估误差大的问题。提出一种改进工程量模式的分布式电源配电网工程造价风险评估方法。构建工程项目不均衡报价的收益优化模型,计算出投标企业的最优造价信息,获取分布式电源配电网工程造价风险因素。采用风险价值法(Var)和蒙特卡罗法对分布式电源配电网工程造价所面临的风险进行评估。仿真结果表明,改进方法可以对电网造价风险进行准确评估。
It can ensure the safe operation of the distributed power distribution network to accurately assess the cost risk.In the risk assessment,it needs to calculate the cost of the grid to maximize the investment income to obtain the cost risk factors of distributed power distribution network.The traditional neural learning estimation method is based on the neural network model to extract the cost data of the power grid.It cannot calculate the maximum investment income.This paper proposes a Project cost risk assessment method for distributed power distribution network with improved engineering quantity mode.The profit optimization model of the unbalanced bidding of the project is built,the optimal cost of the bidding enterprises is calculated,and the risk factors of the project cost of the distributed power distribution distribution network is obtained.The risk value method （Var） and Monte Carlo method are used to assess the risk of the project cost of the distributed power distribution network.The simulation results show that the improved method can accurately assess the cost risk of power grid.
出处
《计算机仿真》
北大核心
2017年第3期96-99,220,共5页
Computer Simulation
关键词
分布式电源配电网
工程造价
风险评估
Distributed power distribution network
Project cost
Risk assessment
