摘要
基于微观家庭决策模型的分析表明,房价上涨会对城镇在婚家庭的生育意愿产生两种相反的效应:挤出效应和收入效应,前者将导致生育意愿下降,后者将导致生育意愿提高。实证研究发现,挤出效应占主导地位,即房价上涨会显著降低城镇在婚居民的二孩生育意愿;对于没有房产或者仅有1处房产的家庭来说,因住房负担增加,其会放弃二孩生育意愿;对于拥有2处及以上房产的家庭来说,住房财富效应没有提高其二孩生育意愿。据此认为,保持房地产市场的稳定有助于提高全面二孩生育政策的实施效果。
Analysis based on the micro family decision- making model indicates that housing price increasing will have two opposite effects on urban married residents＇ fertility willingness： crowdingout effect and income effect. The for- mer leads to a declining of fertility desire, while the latter leads to a rising of fertility desire. Empirical research finds that the crowding - out effect dominates the fertility desire, which means that housing price rising will significantly decrease the urban married residents＇ fertility desire on having two children. Fami- lies, who have no house property or only have one real estate, may have the motivation to give up having two children because of the increasing housing burden. For those families who have two and above house properties, their fertility desire of having two children are not increased by the housing wealth effects. Therefore, keeping the real estate market stable is conducive to enhancing the implementation effects of the universal two - child policy.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期67-72,共6页
Urban Problems
基金
中央高校基本科研业务资助项目(2015AD005)
关键词
房价
二孩生育意愿
养育成本
家庭决策
housing price
fertility desire on having two children
child- rearing cost
family decisions
