摘要
本文拓展了现有研究框架,结合创新型行业中的"赢家效应"和融资摩擦,研究了复杂环境下企业在创新研发投入与现金持有之间的最优权衡及现金流不确定性对企业创新决策及定价的影响。研究发现,在"赢家效应"较强时,企业着眼于现金流不确定性所带来的"机遇","资助效应"占主导地位从而刺激企业进行较为激进的创新研发,此时现金流不确定性会提升企业价值。反之,在"赢家效应"较弱时,企业更注重现金流不确定性所带来的"风险","预防效应"占主导地位从而促使企业进行更为保守的创新研发,此时,现金流不确定性会降低企业价值。特别地,在融资约束附近,现金流的边际效用很大,现金流的不确定性会显著减小企业外部融资的概率,缓解融资约束并提升企业价值。此外,融资摩擦的存在可能会使现金流的不确定性对创新策略及企业价值产生更加复杂的影响。研究结果为创新型行业如何有效地管理现金流不确定性,合理地进行创新研发决策提供了重要的理论依据。
Summary： Multidimensional high uncertainties exist during a firm＇s innovation process in areas such as funding, technology, the market and policy, among which funding uncertainty is the most critical. Therefore, analyzing and identifying the economic mechanism through which cash flow uncertainty affects an innovative firm＇s R＆D strategy and value has rich and important implications for innovative firms wanting to manage the uncertainty and make efficient innovative decisions under complicated and changing circumstances. We identify the economic mechanism through which cash flow uncertainty affects an innovative firm＇s R＆D strategy and firm value, and find thaf positive/negative cash flow shock has a funding/precautionary effect on R＆D strategy. These two opposite effects offset each other. Under the funding effect, innovative firms focus on the ＂opportunity＂ side of cash flow uncertainty, which stimulates more R＆D investment. A positive cash flow shock mitigates financing constraints and increases the probability of winning, thereby appreciating a firm＇s value. Conversely, under the precautionary effect, innovative firms reinforce the ＂risk＂ side of cash flow uncertainty, and discourage R＆D investment to hoard more liquidity and avoid potential financial distress. A negative cash flow shock incurs higher financing costs and longer financing rounds, thereby decreasing the probability of winning and depreciating the firm＇s value. We establish a theoretical model to extend the extant framework by integrating the characteristics of the winner＇s advantage and market friction in an innovative industry. We investigate the innovative firm＇s optimal tradeoff between R＆D and cash holdings, and explore the effect of cash flow uncertainty on an innovative firm＇s R＆D strategy and firm value. The results indicate that having a winner＇s advantage influences both the funding and the precautionary effect. Specifically, when the winner＇s advantage is strong, the funding effect dominates to spur more aggressive R＆D, and finally the cash flow uncertainty increases the firm value. Conversely, when the winner＇s advantage is weak, the precautionary effect dominates, pushing the innovative firm to cut R＆D, and finally the cash flow uncertainty decreases the firm＇s value. Specifically, the marginal utility of cash flow is large around the financial constraints boundary, and cash flow uncertainty significantly mitigates financial constraints and increases the firm＇s value. In addition, the presence of market friction can result in cash flow uncertainty having a more complicated effect upon an innovative firm＇s R＆D strategy and firm value. The results offer great guidance for the government to carry out policymaking and regulations to create a better external environment for firm innovation from the macro perspective. Alternatively, from the micro perspective, the results shed a novel light on an innovative firm＇s efficient management of cash flow uncertainty and the optimal tradeoff between R＆D and cash holdings that ensure it fully grasps the ＂opportunity＂ side and controls the ＂ risk＂ side of uncertainty and makes effective innovations.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期166-180,共15页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71573033
71373036
71271214
71522008)的资助
关键词
现金流不确定性
赢家效应
融资摩擦
资助效应
预防效应
Cash Flow Uncertainty
Winner＇s Advantage
Market Friction
Funding Effect
Precautionary Effect
