摘要
在不确定条件下 ,若某项目投资具有不可逆性且可以推迟 ,此时传统的NPV评价往往会得出错误的评价结论。企业可能拥有某种专利、技术优势或独特的管理资源 ,而比其他企业具有更强的推迟投资的能力。期权方法抓住了投资的可推迟性这一特点 ,使投资评价更为科学和合理。通过一案例研究 ,对传统的NPV法、改进的NPV法和期权方法进行对比 ,最后得出结论 ,期权价值在现实投资决策过程中是不容忽视的。
Under uncertainty conditions, if an investment is irreversible and capable of being delayed, the traditional NPV Valuation always comes to a misleading conclusion. An enterprise may possess a certain patent, technological authorities and perhaps some special managerial resources, which strengthen its capabilities of postponing the investment. Capturing the characteristic of delayability, the options method leads the investment decision-making more scientific and rational. Through a case study, this article has compared the traditional NPV method, improved NPV method with options method .At last, we have concluded that options value can't be ignored in real investment decision making process.
基金
河北省教委自然科学基金资助项目 ( 9836 8)
河北省教委博士基金资助项目 (代管号 -98-5 330 0 1)
关键词
期权理论
投资评价
投资决策
决策分析
净现值分析
Options theory
Investment appraisal
Investment decision making
Decision analysis
Net present value analysis
