摘要
为了分析光伏、风电出力与负荷之间的相关性对发电系统可靠性的影响,采用三维模糊C均值聚类(FCM)对某地区的光伏、风电出力和负荷实测样本进行聚类分析,并建立光伏、风电出力与负荷的可靠性模型,基于RBTS测试系统,利用蒙特卡罗方法对含光伏和风电场的发电系统进行可靠性分析。结果表明,该模型能够很好地描述含光伏和风电的发电系统的随机性,可靠性评估更接近真实情况。
In order to analyze the influence of the correlations between PV and wind power output and load on the reliability of power generation system, the paper uses three-dimensional fuzzy C-means clustering （FCM） to conduct a cluster analysis of the PV, wind power output and load sample data from a region of China, and establishes the reliability model of the PV,wind power output and load. Based RBTS test system, the paper analyzes the reliability of the power generation system including PV and wind farm by Monte Carlo method. The results show that the proposed model can properly describe the probabilistic nature of the power generation system with the PV and wind power, and the reliability assessment considering their correlation properties is closer to real situation.
出处
《陕西电力》
2017年第2期26-30,共5页
Shanxi Electric Power
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2012B05914)
关键词
相关性
模糊C均值聚类
可靠性分析
correlation
fuzzy C-means clustering
reliability analysis
