摘要
汇率制度选择是国际经济学关注的热点问题。各国政策制定者面临选择固定汇率制还是浮动汇率制的挑战。由于面临大规模且高度波动的外汇流入,产油国汇率制度选择的难题更加突出。2014年中期以来,国际原油价格大幅下跌,一些产油国转向更具灵活性的汇率制度,而另一些则维持了钉住美元的汇率制度。本文对比了丝绸之路经济带上的海湾阿拉伯合作委员会(以下简称GCC)1国家、高加索和中亚(以下简称CCA)2地区产油国在2014年中期油价暴跌以来的汇率制度变化情况,发现产业多元化程度和财政空间大小是产油国是否放松钉住美元汇率制度的重要决定因素。在此基础上,本文分析了产油国转向更具弹性汇率制度的影响。
The choice of exchange rate system is a hot issue of international economics. Policymakers face the challenge of choosing a fixed exchange rate system or a floating exchange rate regime. As confronting a large-scale and highly volatile foreign exchange inflows, oil-producing countries face more prominent problems regarding the choice of exchange rate system. Since mid-2014,international crude oil prices have fallen sharply, some oil-producing countries turn to a more flexible exchange rate system, while others have maintained a peg to the dollar exchange rate system. The paper compares the dynamic exchange rate regime of the Gulf Cooperation Council（GCC） and the Caucasus and Central Asia（CCA） oil-producing countries along the Silk Road economic belt after the mid-2014 oil prices plunged, finds that the degree of the industrial diversification and the size of fiscal space are important determinants whether the oil-producing countries relax their peg to the dollar exchange rate regime. On this basis, the paper analyzes the impact of oil-producing countries turning to a more flexible exchange rate regime.
出处
《西部金融》
2016年第12期51-53,61,共4页
West China Finance
关键词
丝绸之路经济带
汇率制度选择
汇率支出转换效应
Silk Road economic belt
exchange rate system choice
exchange rate expenditure conversion effect
