摘要
养老金支出水平(占GDP比重)作为衡量养老金给付与负担水平的重要指标,应在经济中保持适度水平。构建了由老年抚养比、养老金替代率、劳动参与率等参数构成的养老金支出水平模型,并对2015~2050年中国养老金支出水平进行了模拟和实证分析。还建立了多元回归模型,对养老金支出水平的主要影响因素进行了回归分析。发现养老金支出水平总体上呈现逐步上升的发展趋势。同时回归分析发现经济增长、人口老龄化、城市化和制度参数是影响养老金支出水平高低的主要因素。这说明通过合理的政策调整可以保持养老金支出水平的适度性并实现养老金财务收支平衡及可持续发展。对发现的理论与政策含义进行了讨论。
The pension expenditure （a share of GDP）should be kept in a moderate level in the economy as an important indicator to measure the level of pension benefits and burden. We con- struct a model of pension expenditure,which is determined by the elderly dependency ratio, the replacement rate of pension, the labor participation rate and other parameters. The pension ex- penditure is simulated and empirically analyzed in China from 2015 to 2050. In addition, the main factors affecting the pension expenditure are analyzed with the multiple regression models. The results showed that the general level of pension expenditure will increase gradually in the future. It is found that the economic growth, aging population, urbanization and system parame- ters are main factors which affecting the pension expenditure at the meanwhile. It indicates that the rational policy adjustment can effectively maintain the moderate level of pension expendi- ture, and realize the financial balance and sustainability of pension system. The theoretical and policy imphcations of these findings are discussed in this paper.
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期30-42,共13页
Population and Development
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目:城乡社会保障体系协调发展研究(项目号:11&ZD014)
