摘要
对外直接投资是中国影响世界、对世界做出贡献的重要手段,基础设施建设是中国对外直接投资的重要领域。基于"一带一路"建设背景,采用2003年~2012年64个沿线国家的非平衡面板数据构建计量模型,分析中国向沿线国家直接投资、沿线国家基础设施建设与沿线国家人均实际GDP的关系。首先以主成分法构建基础设施评价指数来衡量沿线国家的基础设施水平,发现沿线国家的基础设施水平正不断完善,区域差异在缩小;再建立面板数据模型进行研究发现,中国向沿线国家直接投资增长1%,即能显著促进沿线国家人均实际GDP增长0.01%,中国投资对沿线国家经济增长的贡献率约为12%;最后通过检验中介效应模型发现,中国对外直接投资促进沿线国家经济增长的效应约有30%是通过完善沿线国家的基础设施水平来实现的。
China＇s foreign direct investment is an important measure for China to affect and contribute to the world,and infrastructure construction is an important field of China＇s foreign direct investment. This paper builds an empirical model by using the unbalanced 2003 ~ 2012 panel data of the ＂Belt and Road ＂countries,to analyze how China＇s infrastructure investment in these countries affects their growth of per capita of real GDP. Firstly,the paper uses principal components method to create the infrastructure assessment index to measure the ＂Belt and Road＂countries＇ infrastructure level and finds that the regional disparity of infrastructure in these countries is narrowing and their infrastructure level is constantly improving. Subsequently,the empirical model finds that a 1% increase of China＇s direct investment to these countries can promote 0. 01% of their growth of per capita of real GDP. The contribution rate of Chinese investment to the economic growth of these countries is about 12%. Finally,the mediating effect model shows that China＇s foreign direct investment can well boost the economic growth of these countries,and 30% of their growth is achieved by improving the infrastructure level of these countries.
出处
《广东财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期32-43,共12页
Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDA018)
关键词
对外直接投资
基础设施
“一带一路”
经济增长
中介效应
foreign direct investment
infrastructure
＂Belt and Road ＂
economic growth
mediating effect
