摘要
目的对湖南省丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)发病的流行病学特征进行分析并进行短期发病趋势预测。方法根据传染病报告信息管理系统中报告的2010-2015年湖南省丙肝疫情数据,运用描述性流行病学方法分析其流行病学分布特征,并使用指数平滑法预测2016-2017年湖南省丙肝发病趋势。结果 2010-2015年,湖南省累计报告丙肝病例60 328例,其中男性32 597例,女性27 731例,男女比例为1.18∶1。年平均发病率为18.337/10万,发病率呈逐年递增趋势,发病数、发病率的平均增长速度分别为22.39%和20.86%。发病有较明显季节性,表现为春夏季高发,3月为发病高峰。高发地区为怀化市(10 138例,占16.8%),邵阳(7 335例,占12.16%),衡阳(7 016例,11.63%)以及长沙(6 530例,占10.82%)。丙肝发病具有年龄单峰分布特征,从20岁开始发病急剧增高,40~50岁达到顶峰。在不同的职业构成中,农民构成比最高,为50.00%。使用Winters可加性模型预测2016-2017年月平均发病率分别为14.769/10万、13.687/10万,2016-2017年湖南省丙肝发病率较2015年水平将呈现出下降趋势。结论2010-2015年湖南省丙肝发病呈上升趋势,Winters可加性模型能较好的预测短期湖南省丙肝发病趋势,应结合预测情况与其实际流行病学特征制定防控丙肝策略,合理规划、分配卫生资源。
Objective To study the epidemiological features of hepatitis C in Hunan and the short-term forecast of its incidence tendency. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were adopted to analyze data from report informa- tion management system of communicable diseases of China from 2010 to 2015 for hepatitis C infection status in Hunan province. Exponential smoothing method was adopted to create model to forecast the short-term incidence tendency of hepa- titis C in Hunan from 2016 to 2017. Results From 2010 to 2015, 60 328 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Hunan Province, including 32 597 males cases and 27 731 female cases, and the gender ratio was 1.18 ： 1. The annual average incidence rate was 18. 337/100 000 with an annually-ascending tendency. The average growth rates of newly - emerging cases and incidence rates were 22. 39% and 20. 86% respectively. There was an obvious seasonality characterized in pea- king in spring and summer with a peak in March. The most four densely-distributed regions were Huaihua （ 10 138, 16. 8% ） , Shaogyang（7 335, 12. 16% ） , Hengyang （7 016, 11.63% ） and Changsha （6 530, 10. 82% ）. The case num- bers started to rise sharply from those aged 20 and above and reached a peak among people aged 40-50, presenting a con- spicuous age specific feature. Among populations with different occupations, peasants occupied the largest percentage （50. 00% ）. The incidence of hepatitis C in Hunan from 2016 to 2017 would decrease compared with that in 2015, and the average monthly incidence rates of 2016 and 2017 was predicted to be 14. 769/100 000, 13. 687/100 1300 respectively. Conclusions There has been an ascending tendency of hepatitis C in Hunan between 2010 and 2015; Winters Additive Method is suitable for the short-term forecast of hepatitis C in Hunan. Reality situation and accurate forecast of incidence should be well-combined for the promotion of the preventive works of hepatitis C in Hunan.
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第2期146-150,共5页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
湖南省科技厅科技计划重点项目(2014SK2013)
关键词
肝炎
丙型
流行病学方法
传染病
Hepatitis C
Epidemiologic methods
Communicable diseases
