摘要
This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change. Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system, a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive man- agement for the demands of water sustainable use, water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change. For this study in China, two key indicators are proposed, namely （1） the water resources vulnerability （V） that was represented by inte- grated sensitivity （S） and resilience （C） of climate change impact on water resources, and （2） the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment, marked by DD, that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development （EG） based on the amount of GDP and the water en- vironment and relative eco-system quality （LI）. To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management, a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function, called as VDD=DD/V. This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy, called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls, i.e., the control of total water use by the total water re- sources allocation, the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand manage- ment and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the East- ern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River, Yellow River, Haihe River and Huaihe River. It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function （VDD） and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable. Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more ap- preciable through new water policy of the three red line controls, which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability （V） and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socio- economy and water environment （DD） for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in2030.
This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change. Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system, a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive man- agement for the demands of water sustainable use, water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change. For this study in China, two key indicators are proposed, namely （1） the water resources vulnerability （V） that was represented by inte- grated sensitivity （S） and resilience （C） of climate change impact on water resources, and （2） the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment, marked by DD, that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development （EG） based on the amount of GDP and the water en- vironment and relative eco-system quality （LI）. To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management, a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function, called as VDD=DD/V. This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy, called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls, i.e., the control of total water use by the total water re- sources allocation, the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand manage- ment and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the East- ern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River, Yellow River, Haihe River and Huaihe River. It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function （VDD） and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable. Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more ap- preciable through new water policy of the three red line controls, which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability （V） and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socio- economy and water environment （DD） for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in2030.
基金
Major National Scientific Research Projects, No.2012CB956204
National Basic Research Program of China, No.2015CB452701, No.2010CB428406
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.51279140
