摘要
以人民胜利渠灌区为研究区,基于1961—2013年的长系列数据,采用彭曼公式和CROPWAT软件,计算出历年灌区冬小麦的蓝水、绿水足迹,并根据计算结果进行蓝水、绿水足迹及其影响因子的时间序列分析。采用结构方程模型方法,对蓝水、绿水足迹与气候和农业投入因子的作用关系进行路径分析。结果表明:1961—2013年灌区冬小麦的蓝水、绿水足迹均呈显著下降趋势,作物需水量(ETc)无显著变化,冬小麦产量显著增加是其蓝水、绿水足迹下降的主要原因;影响冬小麦ETc的主要气象因素是平均风速、平均气温、相对湿度和日照时数;在不考虑农业投入的影响时,灌区冬小麦生长季平均风速是对蓝水、绿水足迹影响最大的气候因子,日照时数和有效降水的影响次之;在农业投入和气象因子的共同作用下,冬小麦蓝水、绿水足迹的主要影响因素为农用化肥使用折纯量、农业机械总动力和有效降水。
Understanding the effect of climatic and agricultural input factors on the water footprint of grain production in irrigation area is helpful to improve the efficiency of agricultural water resources utilization. Taking the P eople's Victory Canal irrigation area as a study area,this paper calculated the blue and green water footprints of winter wheat based on the long series data during the period of 1961- 2013 using P enman formula and CROP WAT software. Variations of blue and green water footprints and their impacting factors were analyzed. This paper also analyzed the relationship between water footprint and climatic and agricultural input factors using the method of Structural Equation Model. Blue and green water footprints of winter wheat show a significant decrease trend while the ETcof winter wheat shows no significant change but the yield of winter wheat has significantly increased during year 1961 and 2013. Yield is the key factor affecting the blue and green water footprints of winter wheat. Main meteorological factors affecting the ETcof winter wheat are average wind speed,average temperature,relative humidity,and sunshine hours. Without considering the influence of agricultural inputs,average wind speed is the biggest climate factor affecting the blue and green water footprints of winter wheat. Impact of sunshine hours and effective precipitation on blue and green water footprints of winter wheat are smaller than that of average wind speed. Under the combined effect of agricultural inputs and meteorological factors,main factors affecting the blue and green water footprints of winter wheat are scalar quantity of agricultural fertilizers,total power of agricultural machinery,and effective precipitation.
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2017年第2期42-46,共5页
Yellow River
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279063
51609082)
国家社会科学基金资助项目(14AZD073)
河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划项目(15IRTSTHN030)
关键词
蓝水足迹
绿水足迹
农业投入
气象因子
结构方程模型
人民胜利渠灌区
blue water footprint
green water footprint
agricultural input
meteorological factors
Structural Equation Model
People's Victory Canal irrigation area
