摘要
基于联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的新一代排放情景,和中国气象局发布的"中国地区气候变化预估数据集V3.0",针对安徽省,笔者选择1971—2000年作为基准期,采用区域气候模式模拟的方法,对比分析安徽省未来气候变化特征,重点评估近期内即未来20年气候变化趋势。模拟结果显示,未来20年不同情景下安徽省平均气温均为上升,全省平均增温幅度约0.9~1.1℃;而降水量变化具有不同特征,较低排放情景下降水量以上升为主,高排放情景则以下降为主。到2050s全省平均气温相比于基准期将升高1.6~1.7℃,升温幅度呈现北高南低的特征;全省降水量相比于基准期将下降50~90 mm,各地降水量均呈下降趋势。另外,通过对降水和气温的模拟,预估未来该地区旱涝演替更加频繁,高温热浪等事件也将进一步频发。
Based on the new generation of scenarios which were provided by the fifth assessment report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC）, the future climate in Anhui under different scenarios wasprojected by using the outputs of the regional climate model Reg CM4, which was derived from the＂data set ofclimate change prediction in China V3.0＂released by Chinese Meteorological Bureau. Based on the data set（1971-2000）, the authors adopted the regional climate model simulation to evaluate the climate changes inAnhui in the future, especially during the next 20 years. The simulation results showed that in the next 20 years the average temperature in Anhui under different scenarios were rising, the average temperatureincreased by about 0.9-1.1℃; different characteristics of precipitation were predicted, the precipitation wouldincrease under the low emission scenarios, and decrease under high emission scenarios; until the middle of the21 stcentury, compared with the base period, the province＇s average temperature would rise 1.6-1.7℃; theincrease rate of temperature in the north was higher than that in the south; the precipitation would fall 50-90 mm, compared with the base period, the decrease of precipitation would be in the whole province. Inaddition, through the simulation of precipitation and temperature, we can predict that the extreme weather andclimate events, such as waterlogging, drought, and high temperature will happen frequently.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2017年第1期128-136,共9页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
关键词
温室气体
排放情景
未来气候变化
安徽省
greenhouse gas
emission background
future climate change
Anhui
