摘要
本文构建了一个包含延迟退休和内生出生率的OLG模型,考察延迟退休对人口出生率和经济增长的影响。研究发现,在新古典增长框架和内生增长框架下,无论是现收现付社会保障制度还是完全基金社会保障制度,延迟退休都使得均衡状态出生率上升。延迟退休对内生人口出生率的影响主要通过以下两个渠道实现:一方面,延迟退休使得老年时期收入增加,这会减少年轻时期的储蓄,年轻时期选择更少的时间劳动,投入更多的时间抚育子女,这使得人口出生率上升;另一方面,延迟退休使得资本存量减少,为实现年轻时期的消费,个体必须提供更多的劳动,这使得人口出生率下降。在本文的框架下,延迟退休对人口出生率的正向影响大于负向影响。延迟退休对经济增长的影响依赖于经济增长模式。在新古典经济增长模式下,延迟退休通过提高人口出生率渠道使得经济增长率上升。在内生经济增长模式下,延迟退休通过人口出生率渠道对经济增长的正向影响不足以弥补其通过资本积累渠道对经济增长的负向影响。
This paper constructs an overlapping generation model with postponed retirement and endogenous fertility, and explores the effect of postponed retirement on fertility rate and economic growth. We find that postponed retirement can increase endogenous fertihty rate in both neoclassical growth model and endogenous growth model. There are two channels through which postponed retirement can affect fertility. On the one hand, postponed retirement make the old people have more income, which in turn lowers individuals＇ saving and make individuals supple less labor and devote more time in rearing children. On the other hand, postponed retirement lowers capital stock, and individuals have to devote more time to working to maintain consumption level in the young period. In our model, the positive effect of postponed retirement dominates its negative effect. The impact of postponed retirement on economic growth depends on model specification. In neoclassical growth model, postponed retirement can increase economic growth through its positive effect on fertility rate. In endogenous growth model, positive effect of postponed retirement on economic growth through fertility channel is less than its negative effect through capital accumulation, and postponed retirement lowers economic growth.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第11期28-43,共16页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社科基金项目(16BJL059)
北京市社科基金重点项目(15JGA015)
霍英东教育基金会基础性研究课题(151083)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
延迟退休
内生出生率
经济增长
OLG模型
Postponed Retirement
Endogenous Fertility
Economic Growth
OLG Model
