摘要
为了研究吉林省气候变化现状,根据1961—2013年20个气象站的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温及降水量的年、月数据资料,采用线性分析、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall突变检验、空间插值等方法对吉林省气温和降水量变化特征进行分析。结果表明：近53年吉林省年平均气温变化在3.25~6.63℃之间,存在显著的上升趋势,倾向率为0.286℃/10 a,并在1986年发生突变。季节气温变化中冬季增温最明显。吉林省气温受海拔影响较大,其中中西部平原地区和敦化、靖宇两地为平均气温增温最明显地区。年降水量变化在489.28~825.26 mm之间,整体呈微增长态势,倾向率为0.5 mm/10 a,突变年份为1987年。季节降水量变化趋势较为平缓,主要表现出春冬增长、夏秋减少的趋势差异。年降水量减少较明显地区为吉林省的西北部和长白山地区,而松花江流域则表现出明显的增长趋势。吉林省气候整体表现出有暖干化的趋势。
The paper aims to study current climate change in Jilin. Using the data of average temperature,average highest and lowest air temperature, and the annual and monthly precipitation from 20 meteorologicalstations from 1961 to 2013, the variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Jilin were analyzedby linear analysis, moving average, Mann-Kendall mutation test and spatial interpolation. The results showedthat： in recent 53 years, the annual temperature change of Jilin was between 3.25 to 6.63℃, there was asignificant upward trend, and the tendency rate was 0.286℃/10 a and mutated in 1986; winter warming wasmost obvious in seasonal temperature change; the temperature of Jilin was greatly influenced by altitude, theplain area of the midwest, Dunhua and Jingyu had the most obvious average temperature warming; annualprecipitation change was between 489.28 to 825.26 mm, slightly increased on the whole, the tendency rate was0.5 mm/10 a, mutated in 1987; the seasonal precipitation changed gently, mainly showed a tendency differenceof increase in spring and winter and decrease in summer and autumn; annual precipitation decreased moreobviously in the northwest and Changbai Mountain region of Jilin, while the annual precipitation in SonghuaRiver basin showed an obviously increasing trend. In general, the climate in Jilin showed a warming and dryingtendency.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2016年第29期139-146,共8页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金"甘肃窑街侏罗纪真蕨植物化石微细构造"(41262001)
